Lithium Market Intelligence
Q4 2023 Forecast — Supply, Demand & Balance Outlook to 2035
What changed recently
Demo signal feed from transactions, financings and stage changes.
Transaction2026-04-22
Rio Tinto portfolio review flags Rincon as expansion candidate
Rincon · Rio Tinto
Bow-waveFinancing2026-04-19
Restart funding package proposed for Finniss
Finniss · Core Lithium
RestartStage change2026-04-17
Thacker Pass permit condition cleared
Thacker Pass · Lithium Americas
Permitted recentlyTransaction2026-04-15
Strategic alternatives disclosed for Mt Cattlin
Mt Cattlin · Arcadium Lithium
DistressStage change2026-04-11
Jadar remains at PFS without a refreshed study
Jadar · Rio Tinto
Stalled at PFS2023 Demand
915 kt LCE+24.3%vs 2022
2023 Supply
893 kt LCE+22.6%vs 2022
2023 Balance
-22 kt LCEActive Deposits
55+34.1%vs 2022
Demand Scenario:
Demand vs Supply Balance
kt LCE — Bar shows supply vs demand by year
Supply-Demand Gap
kt LCE — Oversupply (green) vs undersupply (red)
LiB Demand by Segment
GWh — EV, ESS & Portables
EV Penetration Rates
% of new vehicle sales
Demand by Region
kt LCE
2023 Demand by End Use
kt LCE
Battery
88.3%Glass & Ceramics
3.9%Lubricants
2.1%Metallurgy
1.1%Air Treatment
0.9%Medical
0.7%Other
2.9%Top 10 Deposits in 2023
kt LCE Production
Top 10 Countries by Supply
kt LCE — 2023 vs 2030 vs 2040
Active Deposit Timeline
Number of producing deposits by year
Global Supply Outlook
kt LCE — Nameplate capacity vs probability-weighted
Source: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence — Lithium Forecast Q4 2023. All figures in kt LCE unless noted.